UP 1st Phase – A Projection


On Feb 10th, 58 constituencies from 11 districts in Uttar Pradesh went to the polls. The turnout was under 60%. As many as 623 candidates stood for vindication from around 2.28 crore eligible voters which include 1.24 crore males, 1.04 core females and 1448 transgender. That’s a massive exercise by any measure.

Back in 2017, BJP won 53 of the 58 seats, BSP and SP won two seats each and RLD scored the remaining single seat. The BJP’s vote share was 46%, while the BSP’s was 22% and RLD-SP’s combine was at 24%. BJP’ victory was absolute.

It’s been 5 years now since the BJP government took the administrative reins of India’s largest state and the 5th most populous administrative unit in the world. At Meradesh we wish to venture out a prediction.

The first question is how?  

  1.  We have built an exhaustive database of Pan- India electoral data both assembly and parliamentary elections accounting for elections back to 2012.

2. The database contains victory-margin data, vote share, candidate details and more going all the way to the 3rd runner up.

3. Our data scientists work with journalists and political science aficionados to provide context to the analysis and to build a hypothesis. You can contact us if you seek access to the hypothesis.

4. And, loads of humility. We understand that projections in the realm of psephology are fraught with errors due to the range of inherent variables. We add a layer of contextual information such as demographic data, local issues and national issues to improve accuracy and we invite collaborations to help us improve our work.

And why? 

  1. It’s singularly the most effective way to learn about electoral processes and local contexts.
  2. And, most importantly, to establish the fact that it is cost-effective and within the ability of PAC’s and campaigners with limited resources to build data-driven processes.
    Our Projections –
  1. Compared to BJP’s 2017 dominance with 53 seats, this time they will retain around 37 (+ or- 3 seats) constituencies.
  2. RLD will make a comeback with around 11 (+ or- 3 seats) and SP claiming 8 (+ or- 3 seats) seats leading to 18 (+ or- 3 seats) seats strength.
  3. Our analysis indicates that BSP will not be able to win a single seat in Phase-1 and 3 constituencies are holding their cards too close to their chest. We leave those 3 constituencies ‘undecided’.

Insight- The Jat equation with the current government both in Delhi and in the state and the recent farm law protests stand out as strong indicators of a trend reversal.