Introduction
The Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections of 2018 witnessed a high-stakes battle for political supremacy in the state. The assembly elections were held in a single phase on 28 November 2018 to elect members of the 230 constituencies in the state.
A total of 120 political parties and independent candidates participated in the electoral contest, consisting of 5 national political parties, 7 state political parties, and 107 registered unrecognized parties. The voter turnout rose from 72.69 % in 2013 assembly to 74.97% during the elections.
Party wise result
Party Wise Seats
As the results unfolded, it became evident that neither the Congress nor the BJP had secured an outright majority, with the Congress emerging as the single largest party with 114 seats, just two short of the magic number required for a majority in the 230-member assembly. The BJP secured 109 seats, reflecting the fierce competition and the divided mandate of the electorate.
However, INC formed the government with the help of one BSP MLA, one SP MLA and four Independent MLAs. Kamal Nath was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh.
Change in seat share
Shift in Seat Share
In the 2018 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections, there was a notable shift in seat distribution over three elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) experienced a loss of 34 seats, marking a 17% reduction in their assembly representation over the years. Meanwhile, the Indian National Congress (INC) gained 43 seats, representing a 16% increase.
Vote share during the last three elections
Vote Share
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) witnessed a notable shift as their vote share increased by approximately 7% in 2013 but decreased by nearly 4% in 2018.
In contrast, the Indian National Congress (INC) experienced a consistent upward trajectory in vote share. They saw an increase of approximately 4% in 2013, followed by another substantial increase of around 5% in 2018.
Party wise victory margin
Victory Margin
The analysis of the victory margins of the 2018 Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections suggests that the elections were a closely contested affair, with a significant number of winners securing their seats with narrow margins of victory. For instance, between three prominent parties, they had 136 candidates winning with a margin that falls between 0-10%.
Lowest and highest winning margin of INC and BJP
Lowest & Highest Victory Margin
Each of the prominent parties displayed areas of dominance and weak victories. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a narrow victory in Jaora, with a margin of 0.29%, while achieving their biggest win in Chitrangi with a margin of 37.79%.
The Indian National Congress (INC) party’s largest victory was in Dabra with a 38.43% winning margin while their narrowest victory margin was just 0.08% in Gwalior South.
Gender wise candidate distribution and success rate
Success Rate
The 2018 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections witnessed the participation of a total of 2,893 candidates representing various political parties. Among them, 2,643 were male candidates while the remaining 250 were female candidates. The election outcome reveals that 209 male candidates and 21 female candidates secured seats in the legislative assembly, indicating a gender-based success rate of 7.91% for male candidates and 8.40% for female candidates.
Party wise performance in reserved seats
Performance in Reserved Seats
In Madhya Pradesh, out of the total 230 seats in the legislative assembly, 35 seats (15%) are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC), and 47 seats (20%) are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST). In the 2018 elections, both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) performed equally well in the SC-reserved seats, with the BJP winning 18 seats and the INC securing 17.
However, when it comes to seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes, the INC emerged as the frontrunner, outperforming the BJP by winning nearly twice as many seats.
Party wise performance where women voted more than men
Seat with Higher Female Turnout
In the 2018 elections, there were 52 assembly seats where women voters outnumbered men voters. In all of these seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed well, securing victory in 32 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) managed to win 18 seats.
We will be continuously exploring the political landscape of the Madhya Pradesh Assembly in greater depth for the upcoming elections in the state. Stay tuned to check out more with Meradesh App available on Appstore and Play Store.
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